amany-agwa@com.suezuni.edu.eg
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Name: Amany Mohamed Abdel Mageed Abdel Azeem Agwa
Date of Birth: December 16, 1976
Nationality: Egyptian
Marital Status: Married
Address: Cairo, Nasr City
Mobile: 01221417497
Email: amany-agwa@com.suezuni.edu.eg
Qualifications and Employment:
A mathematical model to determine the appropriate retention rate in the aviation insurance branch
Insurance claims data distribution models are considered one of the main tools for actuaries in insurance companies to estimate the insurance price and estimate the value of maximum probable yearly aggregate loss, and fitting the appropriate distribution of actual claims data is a closely related problem and a task that is not easy in actuarial studies. Misr Insurance Company acquires 99.3% of aviation insurance premiums and direct claims paid amounts to 98.2% in the Egyptian market for this the research aims to use probability distributions in determining the appropriate retention limit in the aviation insurance branch of Misr Insurance Company by determining the appropriate probability distribution for the numbers and amounts of claims and the appropriate distribution of total losses and then get the mathematical model for total losses, also maximum probable yearly aggregate loss and appropriate retention rate in the aviation insurance branch. The results of the study showed that the number of claims followed zero- inflated Poisson distribution, the values of claims follow the Weibull distribution. Also, probability distribution of total losses according to Pearson curves follow (Pearson 6 Distribution), and the maximum probable yearly aggregate loss by using the approximate (Bowman-Shenton) equations is (346402126). The appropriate retention rate in the aviation branch is 19.63%. The study recommends the possibility of using zero- inflated Poisson distribution in fitting the number of claims data in aviation insurance, as well as reduce the retention rate in the aviation branch of Misr Insurance Company for reducing the loss rates in this branch.