Name: Amany Mohamed Abdel Mageed Abdel Azeem Agwa

 Date of Birth: December 16, 1976

Nationality: Egyptian

 Marital Status: Married

 Address: Cairo, Nasr City

 Mobile: 01221417497

 Email: amany-agwa@com.suezuni.edu.eg

Qualifications and Employment:

• Ph.D. in Insurance with a focus on "A Proposed System for Insuring Credit Risk System in Egypt" from the Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University (April 2010).
• Master's degree in Insurance with a thesis on "A Technical Study of the Financial Status of Private Insurance Funds in Egypt" from the Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University (July 2004).
• Bachelor's degree in Commerce, Insurance Department, from the Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, with a very good overall grade (May 1997).
• Diploma in Actuarial Sciences, English Section, from the Faculty of Commerce, Cairo University in 2013.
• Member of the Institute of Actuaries in London since 2018.
• Proficient user of some statistical software.
• Associate Professor in the Department of Quantitative Sciences at the Faculty of Commerce, Suez University (September 2022) 

A mathematical model to determine the appropriate retention rate in the aviation insurance branch

Insurance claims data distribution models are considered one of the main tools for actuaries in insurance companies to estimate the insurance price and estimate the value of maximum probable yearly aggregate loss, and fitting the appropriate distribution of actual claims data is a closely related problem and a task that is not easy in actuarial studies. Misr Insurance Company acquires 99.3% of aviation insurance premiums and direct claims paid amounts to 98.2% in the Egyptian market for this the research aims to use probability distributions in determining the appropriate retention limit in the aviation insurance branch of Misr Insurance Company by determining the appropriate probability distribution for  the numbers and amounts of claims and the appropriate distribution of total losses and then get the  mathematical  model for total losses, also maximum probable yearly aggregate loss and appropriate retention rate in the aviation insurance branch.  The results of the study showed that the number of claims followed zero- inflated Poisson distribution, the values of claims follow the Weibull distribution. Also, probability distribution of total losses according to Pearson curves follow (Pearson 6 Distribution), and the maximum probable yearly aggregate loss by using the approximate (Bowman-Shenton) equations is (346402126). The appropriate retention rate in the aviation branch is 19.63%. The study recommends the possibility of using zero- inflated Poisson distribution in fitting the number of claims data in aviation insurance, as well as reduce the retention rate in the aviation branch of Misr Insurance Company for reducing the loss rates in this branch.